President Trump Thinks The Stock Market Would Crash if He Was Impeached

It’s only natural that President Trump would think about his own future after his former campaign manager Paul Manaforf had been found guilty on charges of tax evasion and bank fraud, and his own personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to 8 counts.

Trump believes that if he were impeached, it would result in everyone becoming poor. He told Fox News, “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”

One of the 8 counts Cohen pleaded guilty to was illegal campaign contributions made “at the direction of a candidate for federal office.” I wonder what candidate this could have been.
The campaign violations involve payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal. Both women claimed that they had affairs with the President.

According to PredictIt, the odds of a Trump impeachment hit a three-month high. 37% believe that the impeachment has a chance of happening by the end of 2019 while 45% believe it will happen during his first term.

As far as the market crashing, JPMorgan’s John Normand wrote, “Fiscal stimulus, which has been the most-material driver of this year’s step up in US growth and corporate earnings, would not be reversed if the mid-term elections delivered a Democratic Congress, an impeachment process or eventually a guilty verdict.”

He added, “Neither has the Trump Administration been proposing a deregulatory agenda comparable to Reagan and Clinton’s that requires legislation to deliver transformational change. The agenda is advancing more through personnel, priorities, rules and executive orders, which are important at the sectoral level (Financials, Energy) but not at the macroeconomic one. Thus, rethinking the direction of the economy or financial markets on the prospects for less deregulation under a preoccupied or a different President seems hasty.”

“Perhaps there is a tactical case for reducing overweights in Equities versus Bonds this Fall, on a view that a high P/E market is typically vulnerable to drawdown before an event risk,” Normand also said. “But the case for strategically underweighting stocks or shifting to long duration is poor unless one believes that prospects for US growth, earnings and the Fed in 2019 rest on this aspect of domestic politics.”

“If, at some point, Trump’s Presidency ends prematurely like Nixon’s, the lingering question for EM – or at least the China complex – will be whether the new boss Vice President Pence will be the same as the old boss,” he said.