This Lithium Stock Could Be One of the Biggest Beneficiaries of the Coming Supply Crunch

The world needs significantly more lithium supply—and fast.

As one of the most strategically important commodities for electric vehicles, energy storage systems, clean energy infrastructure, and military applications, lithium remains at the center of the global energy transition. And demand growth is showing no signs of slowing.

According to industry forecasts, global lithium demand could reach two to three times 2024 levels by 2030. Demand grew approximately 30% in 2024 alone, highlighting the accelerating pace of adoption. Also, according to Lithium Harvest, lithium demand could increase to 3.5 to 4.2 times 2024 levels by 2035. By 2040, demand may exceed current 2026 levels by 4.7 to 5.5 times under high-adoption scenarios.

The problem is: “Even if announced projects move forward, supply may still cover only around 85% of demand by 2029, 70-83% by 2035, and 65-75% by 2040, depending on the demand scenario,” notes Lithium Harvest. “The market may look supplied in the short term, but the long-term project pipeline is not keeping pace with the scale and timing of future demand.”

Wood Mackenzie’s latest Energy Transition Outlook echoes that concern. The research firm believes the lithium market could face supply shortages as early as 2028 without substantial new investment. All of which is creating substantial opportunity for lithium stocks, such as Surge Battery Metals (TSXV: NILI) (OTC: NILIF).

It’s Why Billions Are Flowing into U.S. Lithium Projects

Billions of dollars are flowing into projects that can produce lithium on American soil.

In fact, leading that list is the Thacker Pass, located in northern Nevada.

To date, the project has raised more than $3 billion to advance, including a $2.23 billion loan from the Department of Energy, $945 million from General Motors, and another $250 million from Orion, targeting production by 2028.

Once that mine starts production, concerns about mining U.S. lithium clay economically disappears. Close behind, there’s another U.S. lithium project, known as the Nevada North Lithium Project, owned by Surge Battery Metals (TSXV: NILI) (OTC: NILIF).

Not only does it have the same type of deposit as Thacker Pass, it has a higher-grade resource at the surface with the same type of process chemistry.

The Highest-Grade Lithium Clay Deposit in the United States

Surge’s Nevada North Lithium Project hosts the highest-grade lithium clay resource currently defined in the United States.

The current resource estimate stands at 10.51 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in the Measured and Indicated category, grading 3,007 ppm lithium—approximately 50% higher than the grade reported at Thacker Pass.

Importantly, much of the resource lies at or near surface, potentially reducing stripping requirements, lowering waste rock movement, and supporting lower operating costs once in production. In addition, the company’s 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment further strengthened the investment case. The study projected:

• After-tax Net Present Value (NPV): $9.17 billion
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 22.8%
• Operating costs: $5,243 per tonne of LCE

Those figures place Nevada North among the most attractive undeveloped lithium projects globally from an economic standpoint.

A Valuation Gap the Market Has Yet to Close

Despite the project’s size and economics, Surge Battery Metals continues to trade at a substantial discount to its potential value.

The Preliminary Economic Assessment assigns an after-tax NPV of $9.17 billion based on a lithium carbonate price of $24,000 per tonne. Surge currently owns a 70.54% interest in the project. Even after applying significant discounts for development and execution risk, the implied value remains well into the billions.

Yet the company’s market capitalization remains below $150 million.

Part of that disconnect stems from factors common among junior mining companies. Surge trades on the TSX Venture Exchange, limiting exposure to many U.S. institutional investors. The project’s Pre-Feasibility Study has not yet been completed, and the company remains pre-revenue and pre-production.

However, valuation gaps like this often narrow as projects advance through development milestones. Investors only need to look at the evolution of Thacker Pass, whose valuation grew from less than $200 million during its early development stages to more than $4 billion as key milestones were achieved.

The market has not yet fully recognized what strategic investors and industry analysts appear to see in Nevada North.

The resource is large. The grade is exceptional. The economics are compelling. The project sits in one of the world’s most mining-friendly lithium jurisdictions.

What it does not yet have is a valuation that reflects those attributes. For investors willing to look beyond today’s market capitalization, that disconnect may represent the real opportunity.